Iowa notes

January 3rd, 2008

Jeff Toobin and Wolf Blitzer [CNN] are doing a great job of demystifying the caucus rules, different for each party. The Pubs have a straight-forward straw poll and they report numbers; the Dems have a convoluted two-tier process and report percentages.

This is the closest thing to “town meetings” democracy has — and Iowa is the first of what has become a “compressed” process; what used to take three or four months to shake out will happen in a single month. Historically, Iowa has been an influential indicator of nomination, but no sure thing — that may change this year, with less time to reconsider and rethink before another state makes their selection [at least for the Dems.]

Dunno about you — but I think I’d have preferred to wait until some less important moment to radicalize this process. We’re not all pro-ethanol!

Nevertheless, it’s playing out, despite poor weather, with record turnout — and a surprising amount of people have come to the caucus without a clear candidate. In caucus rules, the Dems get to divide up the votes first cast that don’t reach 15% of the majority, and try to convince those supporters to swing their vote to their candidate. Anything can happen … Edwards was ahead early, now he’s tied with Clinton and both are behind Obama by a few points.

CNN reports that over 60% of the Pub turnout is “born again,” many on the Dem side are women, and across the board, many of the attendees are new to the process, having never participated before.

Interestingly, the Conservatives are identifying themselves as Very Conservative — and the Progressives are identifying themselves as Moderates [well, it IS Iowa, isn't it.] As well, the demographic on the Blue side is less political than generational — the younger’s are supporting Obama and leaving Hil in the dirt; for the olders, Hil is getting the numbers while Obama is coming in third.

Just now [8p central,] CNN has given Huckabee the projection as winner — this is possible due to the simplicity of the Pub count. The establishment Republican party immediately commented that the win was “laughable,” and the “equivalent of Pat Robertson” winning. [I think New Hampshire will think so too.]

This does not bode well for the Pub presidential race, overall … and reflects how fractured their constituency.

Let’s ALL laugh, shall we?

If there’s an early Dem winner, I’ll be back tonight — if not, catch ya tomorrow!

Think BLUE!

Jude

http://www.politicalwaves.net

“So keep fightin’ for freedom and justice, beloveds, but don’t you forget to have fun doin’ it. Lord, let your laughter ring forth. Be outrageous, ridicule the fraidy-cats, rejoice in all the oddities that freedom can produce. And when you get through kickin’ ass and celebratin’ the sheer joy of a good fight, be sure to tell those who come after how much fun it was.”
~ Molly Ivins, 1944 - 2007

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