Heckuva job, Greenie!

September 17th, 2007

Iconic Alan Greenspan has decided to trash the prez and his policies several years too late — he didn’t see the sub-prime debacle coming or that the Bushies would take the tax cuts so far — he even says we went to Iraq for oil. His flirtation with the cold vision of Ayn Rand [Atlas Shrugged] seems to have colored his entire career … and influenced American policy for just short of 20 yeara. Add that he’s just shocked at the way it all turned out.

His new book, released today, is not a mea culpa … it’s a whine, and gives us snippits that stretch credibility. He was better off silent … and iconic.

As regards his being “surprised” by all this, who’s he trying to kid! The coffers of the world and this nation wiggled and wobbled at his every sigh and murmur for decades — if HE didn’t/couldn’t make prognostications based on the trends, sniff the air to intuit the lay of the land, he was in the wrong damned job. As regards his disenchantment with the Bushies … if he knew all this years ago and said nothing, he’s another of a growing number of folks upon whom history will frown, who knew and did nothing with their influence.

Bah humbug!

Jude

ps — trivia: Alan is married to journalist Andrea Mitchell.

GREENSPAN: IT’S NOT MY FAULT
JANET WHITMAN, NY Post
September 14, 2007

Alan Greenspan says don’t blame him for the latest market turmoil.

The former Federal Reserve chairman said critics who have argued recently that he helped bring on the crisis in the market for risky home loans by cutting interest rates for three straight years “are mistaken.

“It was our job to unfreeze the American banking system if we wanted the economy to function,” Greenspan told CBS’ “60 Minutes” during an interview to be broadcast on Sunday.

“This required that we keep rates modestly low.”

Greenspan said he didn’t recognize until very late in 2005 that the dubious lending practices - which gave homebuyers loans with low adjustable rates that could jump to precipitous levels - were serious enough to damage the economy.

“While I was aware a lot of these practices were going on, I had no notion of how significant they had become until very late,” he said.

As part of his 18-year reign as Fed chief, Greenspan ratcheted down interest rates from 2001 until 2004.

Though one Fed governor sounded an alarm about the rise of questionable lending tactics, Greenspan said he wasn’t in a position to deal with the problem.

“Well, it was nothing to look into particularly because we knew there was a number of such practices going on, but it’s very difficult for banking regulators to deal with that,” he said.

Greenspan said it isn’t clear that interest rate cuts would have slowed the recent stock market slide.

Greenspan Book Criticizes Bush And Republicans ‘They Deserved to Lose’;
Former Fed Chief Defends Pre-Bubble Rate Cuts

GREG IP and EMILY STEEL, Wall Street Journal
September 15, 2007; Front Page

In a withering critique of his fellow Republicans, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says in his memoir that the party to which he has belonged all his life deserved to lose power last year for forsaking its small-government principles.

In “The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World,” published by Penguin Press, Mr. Greenspan criticizes both congressional Republicans and President George W. Bush for abandoning fiscal discipline.

The book is scheduled for public release Monday. The Wall Street Journal bought a copy at a bookstore in the New York area.

Mr. Greenspan, who calls himself a “lifelong libertarian Republican,” writes that he advised the White House to veto some bills to curb “out-of-control” spending while the Republicans controlled Congress. He says President Bush’s failure to do so “was a major mistake.” Republicans in Congress, he writes, “swapped principle for power. They ended up with neither. They deserved to lose.”

Many economists say the Fed, by cutting short-term interest rates to 1% in mid-2003 and keeping them there for a year, helped foster a housing bubble that is now bursting. In his book, which was largely written before much of the recent turmoil in credit markets, Mr. Greenspan defends the policy. “We wanted to shut down the possibility of corrosive deflation,” he writes. “We were willing to chance that by cutting rates we might foster a bubble, an inflationary boom of some sort, which we would subsequently have to address….It was a decision done right.”

He attributes the housing boom to the end of communism, which he says unleashed hundreds of millions of workers on global markets, putting downward pressure on wages and prices, and thus on long-term interest rates.

Mr. Greenspan retired in early 2006 after 18 years as chairman of the Federal Reserve. He had served under six presidents as either Fed chairman or adviser. He now runs a private consulting company; his only formal public role is adviser to British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

Penguin paid an advance of more than $8 million last year for Mr. Greenspan’s book, according to people familiar with the matter. Promotion for the book includes appearances by Mr. Greenspan on CBS’s “60 Minutes,” NBC’s “Today” and CNBC, interviews with foreign and U.S. media, book signings and speaking engagements. The book’s official release comes a day before the most-watched Fed meeting of the year. On Tuesday, Mr. Greenspan’s successor, Ben Bernanke, must decide whether to cut interest rates to cushion the economy from the reversal of the housing boom that began under Mr. Greenspan’s watch.

His book is half memoir and half treatise on the state of the world and its future. While much of the ground has been covered either in his own previous public remarks or in other books, Mr. Greenspan sheds new light on many policy decisions, offers often-trenchant observations of the presidents he has known and makes some surprising economic forecasts, unmuffled by the often opaque and complex phraseology he used as Fed chairman. Critics, however, may seize on his continued defense of decisions they say led to first a stock bubble and then a housing bubble, and on some assertions that differ from the historical record.

Mr. Greenspan writes that when President Bush chose Dick Cheney as vice president and Paul O’Neill as treasury secretary — both colleagues from the Gerald Ford administration, during which Mr. Greenspan was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers — he “indulged in a bit of fantasy” that this would be the government that would have resulted if Mr. Ford hadn’t lost to Jimmy Carter in 1976. But Mr. Greenspan discovered that in the Bush White House, the “political operation was far more dominant” than in Mr. Ford’s.

“Little value was placed on rigorous economic policy debate or the weighing of long-term consequences,” he writes.

From serving under so many presidents, Mr. Greenspan concludes that there’s something abnormal about anyone willing to do what it takes to get the job. Mr. Ford, he writes, “was as close to normal as you get in a president, but he was never elected.” The Watergate tapes, he says, show Richard Nixon as “an extremely smart man who is sadly paranoid, misanthropic and cynical.” He recalls telling someone who had accused Nixon of anti-Semitism that he “wasn’t exclusively anti-Semitic. He was anti-Semitic, anti-Italian, anti-Greek, anti-Slovak. I don’t know anybody he was pro.”

Ronald Reagan’s ability to instantly tap one-liners and anecdotes in support of a particular policy represented an “odd form of intelligence.” He describes Bill Clinton as “a fellow information hound” with “a consistent, disciplined focus on long-term economic growth” whose relationship with Monica Lewinsky “made me feel disappointed and sad.”

Mr. Greenspan makes no mention of his successor as Fed chairman, Mr. Bernanke, other than in a caption accompanying a picture: “I was very comfortable leaving the post in the hands of such an experienced successor,” it reads.

He devotes chapters to each of the major economic challenges facing the U.S. and the world. On energy, he recommends more use of nuclear power, and he predicts efforts to reduce global warming with carbon caps or taxes will fail. Rising income inequality could undo “the cultural ties that bind our society” and even lead to “large-scale violence.” The remedy, he says, is not higher taxes on the rich but improved education, which can be helped by paying math teachers more.

Mr. Greenspan returns repeatedly to the far-reaching importance of communism’s collapse. He says it discredited central planning throughout the world and inspired China and later India to throw off socialist policies. He recalls meeting a former manager of a produce distribution center in China who says he once had to labor to allocate produce according to government edict; now the allocations are made by auction. “Now I don’t have to get up at four a.m.,” he quotes the manager as saying. “I can sleep in and let the market do my job for me.” Mr. Greenspan recalls his amazement when an adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin asks him to discuss Ayn Rand, the libertarian philosopher with whom Mr. Greenspan had been friends.

In coming years, as the globalization process winds down, he predicts inflation will become harder to contain. Recent increases in the price of imports from China and a rise in long-term interest rates suggest “the turn may be upon us sooner rather than later.”

Left alone, he said, the Fed’s policy-making body, the Federal Open Market Committee, can keep inflation between 1% and 2%, but that could require forcing interest rates to double-digits, a level “not seen since the days of Paul Volcker,” his predecessor as Fed chairman. “I fear that my successors on the FOMC, as they strive to maintain price stability in the coming quarter century, will run into populist resistance from Congress, if not from the White House,” he writes.

If the Fed succumbs to that pressure, inflation could rise from a little over 2% at present to an average of 4% to 5% by the year 2030, he writes. Ten-year Treasury yields, now below 5%, will rise to “at least 8%” with the potential to go “significantly higher for brief periods.” This, he says, will lead to stagnant returns on stocks and bonds and much smaller gains in housing prices.

Mr. Greenspan won plaudits for achieving low inflation and unemployment with just two mild recessions during his tenure at the Fed. But more recently his record has taken some knocks. Some critics fault him for not doing more to restrain the stock bubble of the 1990s, and for responding to its eventual bursting with such low interest rates that housing prices subsequently soared.

Mr. Greenspan writes that in early 1997, he told his colleagues the Fed should raise interest rates as a “preemptive” move against a stock-market bubble. But transcripts of Fed meetings from that period do not support his book’s version of events: They show Mr. Greenspan argued for a rate increase principally because of inflation.

Greenspan Shrugged
Susie Mafdrak, Suburban Guerrilla
September 15th, 2007

So the Washington Post, the New York Times and the Wall St. Journal this morning feature prominent pieces on Greenspan’s new memoir.

You will, of course, be surprised to learn that Greenspan is a principled man! Totally above reproach! Loved Bill Clinton, except for the BJ thing! Disgusted with what the Republicans did to his nice economy! Can’t believe Bush let the spending get out of control!

The WSJ actually checked some of his facts, as good journalists will do:

    Mr. Greenspan writes that in early 1997, he told his colleagues the Fed should raise interest rates as a “preemptive” move against a stock-market bubble. But transcripts of Fed meetings from that period do not support his book’s version of events: They show Mr. Greenspan argued for a rate increase principally because of inflation.

I thought we had a golden opportunity to advance the ideals of effective, fiscally conservative government and free markets.

Did I mention that Greenspan is a self-described free-market libertarian? No? Pay attention, because it’s relevant in a way that the ladies and gentlemen of the lapdog media ignored during his long tenure.

Greenspan was a longtime associate of Ayn Rand - yes, that Ayn Rand. The one who seemed so very revolutionary when you were 14 or so and first read “Atlas Shrugged.”

In an article published in 1963 as part of Ayn Rand’s book Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, Greenspan declared that protection of the consumer against “dishonest and unscrupulous business was the cardinal ingredient of welfare statism.”

“Regulation which is based on force and fear undermines the moral base of business dealings,” he wrote. “Protection of the consumer by regulation … is illusory.”

Greenspan always believed strongly in deregulation because, well, that’s what libertarians believe. For him to pretend he doesn’t understand the motivations of the Bush administration’s rape-and-pillage pro-corporate mentality is, shall we say, a tad disingenuous. From a Common Dreams article, written in 2000 by Ralph Nader:

This year Greenspan decided to end the collection of nationwide data on bank fees. The survey, which was authorized as part of the financial reforms adopted in 1989, has proven an excellent tool that consumer groups have used to highlight and battle the excessive fees that banks impose on consumers.

Similarly, the Federal Reserve is dropping its “Functional Cost Analysis” study, which has provided important data on how much it costs banks to provide services. This has been a great tool for measuring the validity of bank charges. Credit unions, particularly, have made good use of this data to dramatize fee and interest rate gouging by banks.

But if we believe the words of Greenspan during his Ayn Rand period, he probably doesn’t see any need for such data, much less regulation.

And if anyone complains about the loss of such consumer and fair-lending information, Greenspan could send them this excerpt from his writings with Ayn Rand: “Government regulation is not an alternative means of protecting the consumer. It does not build quality into goods, or accuracy into information. Its sole contribution is to substitute force and fear for incentive as the ‘protector’ of the consumer. The euphemisms of government press releases to the contrary notwithstanding, the basis of regulation is armed force. At the bottom of the endless pile of paper work which characterizes all regulation lies a gun.”

    And this is the Alan Greenspan who Congress believes should protect the public interest in the regulation of the new financial conglomerates?

    So there you have it. According to the Randian wet dream, all regulation is a gun held to the head of Noble Businessmen by jackbooted thugs.

    Even if he modified his views somewhat (at least enough to upset other Randians), he still played his part well enough to lead us to the brink of the economic ruin and pending chaos that is the logical result of blanket deregulation.

One episode in the book as described by the Post is telling:

    When he first heard and read details of the Clinton-Lewinsky encounters, Greenspan writes, “I was incredulous. ‘There is no way these stories could be correct,’ I told my friends. ‘No way.’ ” Later, when it was verified, Greenspan says, “I wondered how the president could take such a risk. It seemed so alien to the Bill Clinton I knew, and made me feel disappointed and sad.”

And see, this is the problem with True Believers. They fall in love with an ideal, much the same way a 15-year-old fantasizes about the perfect life she could have with her favorite rock star. They are extraordinarily naive about the complexities of human nature.

I mean, who would ever believe that thievery would run rampart in a deregulated atmosphere? Who knew? Who could imagine that terrorists would fly planes into buildings, or that invading Iraq to steal their oil wouldn’t be a cakewalk?

Who could know? Not me! It’s not my fault!

For Greenspan to pretend otherwise, to clutch his pearls at the economic fruition of his philosophies, is too hard for any sane person to swallow.

Decent people should shun him. Instead, Beltway politicians and journalists will celebrate him at cocktail parties while the nation falls deeper into the abyss.

No, Greenspan Doesn’t Get To Rehabilitate His Reputation
Ian Welsh, FireDogLake
[open link for charts]

So Alan Greenspan has a new book coming out on Monday. And it says nasty things about the Bush administration. Welcome to the club Alan - the club of Bush enablers who write books once they aren’t in power, in a pathetic attempt to pretend they weren’t culpable in Bush’s mess. But back when it mattered, back when you were in charge of the Fed, when you were lionized as the Maestro… oh, back then, when you could have actually, I don’t know, oh, done something concrete to oppose Bush’s policies, did you? No, no you didn’t.

Let’s see what Uncle Alan is saying in his book, say about tax cuts…

    Though Mr. Greenspan does not admit he made a mistake, he shows remorse about how Republicans jumped on his endorsement of the 2001 tax cuts to push through unconditional cuts without any safeguards against surprises. He recounts how Mr. Rubin and Senator Kent Conrad, Democrat of North Dakota, begged him to hold off on an endorsement because of how it would be perceived.

    “It turned out that Conrad and Rubin were right,” he acknowledges glumly. He says Republican leaders in Congress made a grievous error in spending whatever it took to ensure a permanent Republican majority…

    …Today, Mr. Greenspan is indignant and chagrined about his role in the Bush tax cuts. “I’d have given the same testimony if Al Gore had been president,” he writes, complaining that his words had been distorted by supporters and opponents of the cuts.

How precious is that. Take a look at the top chart - has the government ever reduced spending in recent history? Greenspan can’t claim economic illiteracy. He knew that. Yet he shilled for tax cuts anyway.

In fact, according to a 2001 story he made the endorsement after he knew what the details of the cut were and the amounts of it. We are supposed to believe the Maestro couldn’t do the math?

    In testimony to the Senate Budget Committee, Greenspan declined to comment on President Bush’s $1.6 trillion, 10-year tax cut plan, saying a decision on the size of a cut was best left up to Congress and the political process. But the Fed chairman’s backing of tax cuts as economically sound likely will provide a boost to the new administration’s proposals.

And the tax cuts made a difference. As Krugman noted:

    Why, then, do we face the prospect of huge deficits as far as the eye can see? Part of the answer is the surge in defense and homeland security spending. The main reason for deficits, however, is that revenues have plunged. Federal tax receipts as a share of national income are now at their lowest level since 1950.

    Of course, most people don’t feel that their taxes have fallen sharply. And they’re right: taxes that fall mainly on middle-income Americans, like the payroll tax, are still near historic highs. The decline in revenue has come almost entirely from taxes that are mostly paid by the richest 5 percent of families: the personal income tax and the corporate profits tax. These taxes combined now take a smaller share of national income than in any year since World War II.

The economist Kash, likewise did the numbers a couple years back (chart below):

    The following chart shows what this means for the budget deficit. The blue bars show the Bush administration’s most recent budget deficit forecast – the one that they were crowing about today. The orange bars show the budget forecast if the Bush tax cuts had never happened, according to the estimates by the Congressional Budget Office, calculated by simply summing the CBO’s estimates of the revenue effects of each of the Bush tax cuts. The purple bars show what the budget deficit would have been without the Bush tax cuts, even if you believe the supply-siders and use the JCT’s “dynamic scoring”, which assumes that without the tax cuts the economy would have grown more slowly.

Are you surprised by this? Of course you aren’t. So why was Greenspan surprised? The answer comes back to the standard answer when dealing with the Bush administration - either he was a fool, or he was an ideological hack, or he was stupid. I don’t think Greenspan’s stupid, but his argument is essentially that he was a fool. Personally I don’t think he was a fool, or stupid, I think the tax cuts are exactly what the Randian disciple Greenspan wanted. As the NY Times notes:

    Shortly after “Atlas Shrugged” was published in 1957, Mr. Greenspan wrote a letter to The New York Times to counter a critic’s comment that “the book was written out of hate.” Mr. Greenspan wrote: ” ‘Atlas Shrugged’ is a celebration of life and happiness. Justice is unrelenting. Creative individuals and undeviating purpose and rationality achieve joy and fulfillment. Parasites who persistently avoid either purpose or reason perish as they should.”

Randians generally figure that any money you got, you got all on your own, and you therefore deserve all of it. The government is a leech for taking it away to give to less productive people, because rich people are generally the most productive contributors and should not be disincentivised from working hard. Tax cuts on the rich are a very Randian thing to do. And so Greenspan backed them.

Greenspan also was in charge of the “Greenspan Commission” whose recommendations formed the basis for the 1983 changes to Social Security meant to save SS and make it build up a reserve of cash to deal with the baby boomer retirement. And, in fact, Greenspan did a good job, and the bill did what it was advertised to. SS, if left alone, will not run out of money before most of the Boomers are dead a good 30 or more years from now. Of course, being Greenspan how he did it was to raise the amount the poor and middle class donate and to not hit the rich hard (in fact the taxation is capped above a certain level and applies only to wage income) . The tax was immensely regressive, and because the money was leant to the federal government, it also allowed immense amounts of pork.

As Dean Baker notes, this is important because in 2004 Greenspan wanted to cut Social Security…

    Two weeks ago Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan testified before the Senate Budget Committee about the state of the economy. He expressed concern about the budget deficit and suggested that cutting Social Security might be a good way to reduce the size of the deficit.

    It is worth noting that Social Security is currently running a large surplus and is projected to continue to run annual surpluses for more than two decades into the future. The Social Security trustees projections show that the fund’s trust will be able to support all scheduled benefit payments for nearly forty years into the future. If Social Security benefits are cut, without any corresponding reduction in the tax rate (which is exactly Mr. Greenspan’s recommendation), then this would mean that Social Security taxes are being used to finance the general budget, not Social Security.

So, let’s do the arithmetic. If SS taxes became used not for SS, but for the general budget, that would mean the tax cuts that Greenspan shilled for in 2001 and were in large part responsible for the deficit - tax cuts that benefited the rich mostly - would be made up mostly by a highly regressive tax that hits the working and middle classes much harder than the affluent - let alone the rich. Again, the pattern is clear - soak the poor, spare the rich. They’re more productive, doncha know. Middle class and working class people are leeches.

But we aren’t finished with Greenspan’s ideological support for the worst sort of Bush administration economic policies. Oh no. Let’s talk about the housing bubble and the sub-prime crisis…

    Mr. Greenspan writes briefly about what may become a more troubling legacy, the housing bubble, and now the bust, that was fueled by low interest rates and risky mortgages in the last six years.

    Some economists argue that Mr. Greenspan deserves considerable blame, because the Fed slashed interest rates to rock-bottom lows and kept them there for three years after the stock market collapse and the recession in 2001.

    The Fed was “a prime culprit in creating the crisis,” wrote Steve Forbes, publisher of Forbes magazine, in a just-published commentary. But other economists, including critics of Mr. Greenspan, say the housing bubble resulted from much broader forces, including a dramatic drop of interest rates around the world and an explosion of mortgages that required no money down, no income verification and deceptively low initial teaser rates.

    Mr. Greenspan generically defends the Fed’s action, writing: “I believed then, as now, that the benefits of broadened home ownership are worth the risk. Protection of property rights, so critical to a market economy, requires a critical mass of owners to sustain political support.”

Now, it’s definitely true that the sub-prime mess and the housing bubble weren’t just caused by Fed policy. But it’s also true that those 3 years at generational lows certainly kick-started it, gestated and got it growing at a ferocious rate. I was writing about the coming housing bubble back in 2002 (on the old Atlantic Monthly forums) - it was clear what the policies would do. And Greenspan knew too - he implicitly admits it above with his talk about how wonderful more home ownership would be because it would help increase property rights by altering politics. Property rights, of course, are another Randian bugaboo. Not that they aren’t important, but there’s a reason why they aren’t in the Constitution, why governments are allowed to seize property, and so on. Greenspan kept rates low longer than made sense due to ideological reasons. And he pushed it hard.

Speaking personally, what respect I had for Greenspan turned to contempt when he pushed variable rate mortgages in early 2004, with these words:

    Calculations by market analysts of the “option-adjusted spread” on mortgages suggest that the cost of these benefits conferred by fixed-rate mortgages can range from 0.5 percent to 1.2 percent, raising homeowners’ annual after-tax mortgage payments by several thousand dollars. Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward.

Uh huh. Except, of course, that “when” you do things matters. In early 2004 interest rates were at, ummm, generational, let alone decade long, lows. They weren’t going to get lower. Suggesting that variable rate mortgages would be a better idea, even with caveats, was immensely irresponsible and even cruel. Greenspan’s public repuation was still sky high, and one can imagine that ordinary Americans would have thought that Uncle Alan knew what he was talking about and wouldn’t steer them wrong.

Uncle Alan, Greenspan, the Maestro, was an ideologically driven central banker. Working with Clinton and Rubin he had generally good results, but as soon as the lead sled dogs were gone, the Maestro lost his way. His mistakes - keeping interest rates low too long, encouraging tax cuts, ignoring the growing housing bubble and indeed encouraging it were symptoms of his strong ideological bias, which was also demonstrated in his suggestion to slash Social Security when it was not in significant difficulty (bankruptcy 40 years out is not a “crisis”, especially given how economic forecasting works).

Greenspan was never “the Maestro”. He was certainly a technically competent Fed Chairman, and no one can take that away from him. But presented with the opportunity to shill for his ideology, he chose ideology over economic sense and ignored the numbers time and time and time again in order to aid the Bush administration’s policy goals.

For him, now, to say that he somehow didn’t mean it, or that he was, behind the scenes, urging caution, or that he was hoodwinked, is sophistry of the most pathetic kind. He was not economically naive. He had the skills not to be taken in. If he was taken in, he was taken in because he wanted to be taken in. And right up to 2004 he can be seen, having not learned his lesson, even as Bush had vetoed no spending bills at all, still using his reputation to try and help push through Bush administration policies.

There have been a lot of people writing books and articles of late, in which they throw Bush over the bus in an attempt to save their reputation. (Colin Powell, are you listening?) In almost every case, they did nothing when they had the power; had the influence; had the opportunity to actually made a difference.

Greenspan is nothing but another rat fleeing the sinking S.S. Bush in an attempt to save his reputation for posterity. He doesn’t deserve space on the life raft. Men like Treasury Secretary O’Neill, who wrote their books while it still mattered, when it still took guts, when it might have made a difference; they deserve a hand up. Greenspan deserves to go down with the ship.

“So keep fightin’ for freedom and justice, beloveds, but don’t you forget to have fun doin’ it. Lord, let your laughter ring forth. Be outrageous, ridicule the fraidy-cats, rejoice in all the oddities that freedom can produce. And when you get through kickin’ ass and celebratin’ the sheer joy of a good fight, be sure to tell those who come after how much fun it was.”
~ Molly Ivins, 1944 - 2007

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

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